Will mortgage rates ever go below 3 again?
After all, higher rates equate to higher minimum payments. So, you may be wondering if, and when, mortgage rates might fall to 3% or lower again - and whether or not it's worth waiting to buy a home until they do. Although rates could fall to 3% again one day, it's not likely to happen any time soon.
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024.
In its January Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.
Current mortgage interest rate trends
Meanwhile, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased from 6.29% to 6.26%. After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Predicted Range for 2025
Considering these factors, a conservative prediction for 30-year fixed mortgage rates by 2025 could be in the range of 5.5% to 7%.
Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house?
“The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in the association's December pending home sales report. NAR forecasts that sales will rise by 13 percent in 2024.
“If we've learned anything over the past few years, it is that mortgage rates and other financial conditions can shift rapidly as conditions change. My base expectation is that mortgage rates will decline more gradually and not break below 6% in 2024.”
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised short-term interest rates in 2022 and 2023. As a result, mortgage rates moved much higher, altering the landscape for homebuyers and sellers alike. Notably, many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell their current homes only to assume new, potentially more costly mortgages.
Although the Fed doesn't set them, mortgage rates are impacted by the Fed funds rate. Bond market conditions have an indirect effect on how much lenders charge for mortgages. A drop in demand for housing inventory often leads to a drop in mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates in the US fell after two weeks of increases, dropping to the lowest level in almost eight months. The average for a 30-year, fixed loan was 6.6%, the lowest since May and down from 6.66% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced at its January 2024 meeting that it would maintain the overnight federal funds rate at the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The decision marks the fourth straight meeting at which policymakers have opted to hold rates steady, dating back to September 2023.
How Much Does It Cost To Buy Down An Interest Rate? The cost for each discount point depends entirely on the amount you, as the borrower, take out on the loan. Each point that a borrower pays is equivalent to 1% of the loan amount.
Product | Interest Rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30-Year Fixed Rate | 7.10% | 7.14% |
20-Year Fixed Rate | 6.83% | 6.88% |
15-Year Fixed Rate | 6.60% | 6.68% |
10-Year Fixed Rate | 6.45% | 6.54% |
According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.
How long can interest rates stay high?
The Fed now expects to keep interest rates over 5% through 2024, meaning rates for mortgages, personal loans, and credit cards will stay near their current high levels.
Savings account rates increased in 2023 as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to combat inflation. Savings account rates will likely go down in 2024 when the Federal Reserve cuts its rate.
Predicted Range for 2025
Considering these factors, a conservative prediction for 30-year fixed mortgage rates by 2025 could be in the range of 5.5% to 7%.
Projected Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast 2024
The National Association of Realtors anticipates a drop in interest rates to around 6% in 2024. Additionally, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that the 30-year fixed rate will settle in the 5% range for the entire year of 2024.
In 2025, the housing market is expected to start picking up again, with home prices rising by approximately 1% to 2% above the current inflation rate.
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